SYSTEM DYNAMICS
SIMULATION
SYSTEMS
THINKING
BA 7000 Instructor: Dr. Burns
Fall 2010 Office: BA 714
email: jburns@ba.ttu.edu Hours: T & Th 11-11.45am
TEXT: Sterman, John, Business Dynamics: Systems Thinking and Modeling for a Complex World,
Boston: Irwin-McGraw-Hill, 2000. (Buy this used off of Amazon, if you can.)
References: Senge, Peter, The Fifth Discipline: The Art & Practice of The Learning
Organization,
Vensim, The PLE edition of this software is
available, including manuals, from the Ventana Systems, Inc. website: www.vensim.com. Be
sure to download and install the PLE version of the software and the user
manuals at your earliest convenience.
Burns, Jim, Systems
Thinking and System Dynamics, 2005.
(These notes must be purchased in the copy shop in the basement of the
BA building. These will be needed by the second week of class.)
Welcome to THE elective course in the area of systems
thinking. As an elective, this course
will be designed in real-time to fit your needs exactly. On the first day of class we will assess
everyone’s collective needs and make adjustments. Because of the summer format, the course wil
take a more relaxed pace. The course
will endeavor to accomplish multiple
goals. First, the course covers systems
thinking and system dynamics in total; second the course will discuss
contemporary problems in systems thinking as "projects." Finally, the course will cover topics tangential
to systems thinking like Goldratt’s Thinking Process. There could also be a lecture or two on
stochasitic simulation using PROMODEL.
The thought here is that systems thinkers, of all people, ought to be
eclictic in terms of their selection of tools for problem solving. And, we should not blindly assume that all
problems can be solved with system dynamics.
This course will cover the following contemporary
topics:
1. Problem
definition
2. Causal loop diagramming
3. Stock-and-flow
diagramming
4. Continuous
deterministic simulation
5. VENSIM
6. Systems
thinking basics
7. Relationship to system dynamics
8. Process
concepts
9. Goldratt Thinking process
10. Discrete
stochastic simulation
11. PROMODEL
WEB Sites. The web site for
course materials related to this course is http://burns.ba.ttu.edu/. You will find there
a variety of PowerPoint slides. All of
the PowerPoint slides that we use in class are available there, for
example. In addition to Bob Eberlein’s VENSIM web site mentioned in the list of
references above, we will have occasion to visit Barry Richmond’s web
site: www.hps-inc.com. Like Bob, Barry has
his own system dynamics modeling tool and along with that, a number of prefab
“problems.” Specifically, he has
developed simulation models for the environment, the Palestinian/Israeli
Conflict, and many other ‘situations.”
He features a “problem of the month” on his web site. We will be looking at a number of his models
in this course. Unfortunately, Barry
passed away at the relatively young age (in my opinion) of 55, but his firm
continues and his leagcy continues.
Grading: One
exam and a FINAL will be administered.
All exams will be mandatory.
Make-up exams will be administered only to students with excusable
conflicts. Exams will take place in this
classroom during the regular meeting time.
In addition to the exams, some assignments will be
taken up. All exams and computer
assignments will be graded on a basis of 0 to 100%. The letter grade breakdowns used in assigning
all grades, including the final grade are:
A------------------
90 - 100%
B------------------
80 - 89%
C------------------
70 - 79%
D------------------
60 - 69%
F------------------
Below 60%
The first exam will be worth 25%, while the second
exam (which will be comprehensive) will be worth 30%. The homework assignments will carry a total
worth of 10%. A term project (discussed
below) will be worth 20% plus 5% for the presentation. Class participation will be worth 10%--5% for
participation in general discussion and 5% for an in-class presentation on a
topic other than your term project.
Attendance:
Class attendance will be noted.
The seat in which you sit on the second class day will be "your
seat" for the remainder of the semester.
Late entrances and early exists to and from the classroom are
distractions which disrupt the class. If
you arrive later or if you must leave early, please make your entrance or
departure as quiet and orderly as possible.
Exams: The
exams will test your ability to apply the solution techniques discussed in
class. In addition, the exams will test
your general substantive understanding of the materials including definitions
and concepts. Each exam will consist of
multiple choice questions and discussion
problems. Multiple choice
questions may be used to lead you through a solution procedure. You are
responsible to bring your own scantron sheets to each exam. You will turn-in the scantron sheet and the exam booklet once
you have completed the exam.
Behavior:
Students are expected to assist in maintaining a classroom environment
that is conducive to learning. In order
to assure that all students have an opportunity to gain from time spent in class,
unless otherwise approved by the instructor, students are prohibited from using
cellular phones or audible beepers, eating or drinking in class, making
offensive remarks, reading newspapers, sleeping or engaging in any other form
of distraction. Inappropriate behavior
in the classroom shall result in, minimally, a request to leave class.
Academic conduct:
The Texas Tech policy for academic conduct (Student Affairs Handbook,
pg. 33-42, 1993-94) applies to all students, at all times. Any student who violates the academic conduct
policy will be subjected to the appropriate disciplinary sanctions (Student
Affairs Handbook, pg. 37, 1993-94). .
Once your course grade has been determined, it is impossible to do extra
work to improve the grade after the fact.
After the end of the semester, do not ask me for the opportunity to do
extra work.
Disabled
Students: If, for any reason, you have a
physical, visual, hearing or cognitive impairment that hinders your ability to
write, see, hear or take exams, please advise the instructor of your condition,
and provide a letter of verification from your doctor. He will make every effort to accommodate your
situation as best as he can. You are
also advised that you have certain rights as stated in Section 504 of the
Rehabilitation Act of 1973 and described on page 13 of the Student Affairs
Handbook (1993-994).
Term Project:
The term project will involve application of the techniques discussed in
class to a problem area of interest to you.
The term project is due on or before December 8, 2010. It must be written in the following format
and should be double-spaced typewritten pages with one-inch margins and 12
points of type.
1.
Title Page.
2.
Executive summary -- a one-page brief of the project or case. This should identify who the styakeholders
are, what their needs are, how those needs were resolved or accommodated by the
proposed IT product.
3. FRONTMATTER
consisting of the following subheadings:
Description of the Problem/Opportunity, the Goal, the Success Criteria,
Assumptions/Risks, Recommended Prescriptive Software Solution,
Impediments/Obstacles Encountered, Current Status, Lessons Learned. The FRONT MATTER should describe the project
environment, to include cultural, political, social, legal, and other
non-quantifiable factors that have a bearing on the managerial situation. The FRONT MATTER should describe the goal
and the criteria by which success will be judged. Empediments and obstacles encountered along
the way should be described here. Include
here a statement of how much of the total project was actually completed,
whether the project is currently on schedule and under budget, any problems
encountered, as well as what happens from here.
{Recall, that you are not required to complete the project, but only to
plan it in its entirety. You should
complete the early phases of the project, however, so that you have the experience of actually comparing, controlling and monitoring a
project relative to its plan.} Sections
1, 2 and 3 should be roughly 8 or more pages in length, double-spaced and in
eleven points of ARIAL type. The FRONT
MATTER should be written last, just before the term project is turned in.
The main
body of the report, following the front matter, will describe the model, beginning
with the list of variables, constants, followed by the causal loop diagram, the
stock-and-flow diagram and finally the working simulation exhibited with
behavior time charts. Recommendations,
conclusioins will conclude the report in which leverage points, will be
proposed.
TERM PROJECT
GRADING AND EVALUATION: The project or
case will be evaluated along the following dimensions.
1. Originality -- is the basic application
especially interesting or unusual, or is it a re-hash of a well-known textbook
illustration?
2. Analytical approach -- was the
appropriate model (or models) chosen and formulated, and was the analysis
complete and accurate? How much validity
can be attached to the results?
3. Documentation -- were the data sources
and other problem characteristics well-documented, and were appropriate
literature sources referenced? Are the
conclusions and recommendations well articulated and supported?
4. Quality of the report -- is the report professionally done, in the correct format, and
well-written? How much use is made of
plots, charts, and other graphical presentations? Is the content clear, complete and correct?
5. Correctness -- more than mere technical
accuracy, does the project report describe why what was done was worth doing?
6. Creativity -- is the project original,
innovative and unusual, does it describe original work?
7. Complexity -- what is the sophistication
level of the work?
8. Clarity -- what is the character and
quality of the written document; is it clear what the author has done?
9. Completeness -- to what extent does the
project address its issue or problem in totality, thoroughness, holism?
TERM PROJECT
COMMENTS AND SUGGESTIONS: If done well,
a project/case of this type is a tremendous learning experience. In the "real world" of business,
industry, and public sector decision making, such undertakings are everyday
occurrences at all managerial levels, and promotion to higher levels of
managerial responsibility depends to a large extent on one's ability to
identify, model, and solve problems, and to communicate the results in a
well-written report.
The
following "tips" may be helpful to you in identifying an appropriate
project or case, and successfully completing the assignment.
1. Try to identify a managerial problem in
an environment familiar to you. Problems
are all-pervasive in organizations, and few exist that cannot be simulated
successfully.
2. Begin
now to define your project. Most poor
projects (both in academia and in the "real world") are the result of
procrastination -- waiting until the last minute, and "throwing something
together." I'll be happy to help
you focus an idea you may have.
Topics of
intense contemporary interest include AGRICULTURAL DYNAMICS, ENERGY/ECOLOGY
DYNAMICS,
Related
areas of interest include CAPABILITY MATURITY MODELS, TOTAL QUALITY MANAGEMENT,
SYNCHRONOUS PRODUCTION, CONCURRENT ENGINEERING, TIME-BASED COMPETITION. All of these contemporary topics entail a
pre-occupation with the process.
Understanding the process, documenting the process, improving the
process, are all activities of intense interest to companies. As mentioned on the first day of class, this
course will take this broadened view in addition to coverage of the usual
topics.
Learning
Objectives of course:
1.
To
understand Senge’s five disciplines
2.
To
focus on systems thinking
3.
To
learn leverage points
4.
To
learn the laws of systems thinking
5.
To
comprehend the basics of system dynamics
6.
To
fully understand best practices in system dynamics
7.
To
learn the concepts of maturity and organizational learning
8.
To
learn how systems thinking integrates with system dynamics
9.
To
learn how to cope with complexity
10.
To
learn how to manage “problems”
11.
To
learn various decision environments and the dynamic models appropriate for them
12.
To
employ a managerial perspective that focuses on decision making rather than on
the details of algorithms
In what follows,
S denotes the Senge material, whereas B denotes the Burns material, ST
Sterman’s book BUSINESS DYNAMICS—the text for this course.
|
DATE |
Topic and Underlying PowerPoint |
Reading/HW Assignment |
|
8/30 |
B |
|
|
8/30 |
B |
|
|
9/1 |
S |
|
|
9/1 |
S |
|
|
9/8 |
ST |
|
|
9/8 |
ST |
|
|
9/13 |
Stock
and Flow Diagrams, ST Ch 7 |
ST |
|
9/13 |
ST |
|
|
9/15 9/20 |
B |
|
|
9/22 |
Using
Ratios and Multipliers to bring in the effects of additional information from
other Sectors |
B |
|
9/27 |
B |
|
|
9/27 |
B |
|
|
9/29 |
B |
|
|
9/29 |
B |
|
|
10/4 |
B |
|
|
10/4 |
Review |
B |
|
10/6 |
EXAM 1 |
|
|
10/6 |
EXAM 1 |
|
|
10/13 |
ST |
|
|
10/13 |
ST |
|
|
10/18 |
ST |
|
|
10/18 |
ST |
|
|
10/20 |
ST |
|
|
10/20 |
ST |
|
|
10/25 |
ST |
|
|
10/25 |
ST |
|
|
10/27 |
ST |
|
|
10/27 |
ST |
|
|
11/1 |
Help with projects |
|
|
11/3 |
B |
|
|
11/8 |
B |
|
|
11/8 |
B |
|
|
11/10 |
PROJECT MANAGEMENT |
B |
|
11/15 |
B |
|
|
11/17 |
B |
|
|
11/17 |
B |
|
|
11/22 |
B |
|
|
11/22 |
B |
|
|
11/29 |
B |
|
|
11/29 |
B |
|
|
12/1 |
B |
|
|
12/1 |
Presentations |
B |
|
12/6 |
Presentations |
|
|
12/8 |
|
|
|
FINAL |
|
|
|
FINAL |
|
Your project
will involve the following deliverables due on the following dates.
One-page
project description 9-8
Homework Set
1 9-29
Homework Set
2 12-6
PRESENTATIONS
(20 min each) 12-1,
12-6
FINAL
PROJECT 12-8
(and including FRONT MATTER: scenario, problem, solution)
BIBLIOGRAPHY
1. Eberlein, Bob, VENSIM Modeling Tool and User
Manuals, www.vensim.com, Ventana Systems
Inc., 60 Jacob Gates Road, Harvard, MA 01451, 1-800-VENSIM1, vensim@vensim.com.
2. Richmond, Barry, Stella Modeling Tool and
Prefab Models, www.hps-inc.com, High
Performance Systems, Inc., 45 Lyme Road, Suite 300, Hanover, NH 03755-1221,
800-332-1202
3. PA Consulting Group, www.paconsulting.com, one of the most
respected system dynamics consulting organizations, located at
4. Senge, Peter, The Fifth
Discipline: The Art & Practice of
the Learning Organization,
5. Senge, Peter, et.Al., The Dance of Change:
6. Goldratt, Eliyahu M., The Goal,
Great
7.
Goldratt, Eliyahu M. ,It’s not Luck, Great
Barrington, MA: The North River Press,
1994.
8.
Goldratt, Eliyahu M.,Critical Chain, Great
9.
10. Hammer, Michael, "Reengineering
Work: Don't Automate,
Obliterate," Harvard Business
Review, pp. 104-112, July-August 1990.
11. Cox, Charles A. "Keys to Success in
Quality Function Deployment," APICS:
The Performance Advantage, Vol. 2, No. 4, pp. 25-29, April 1992.
12. Joseph T. Vesey, "The New
Competitors: They Think in Terms of
'Speed to Market'," Production
and Inventory Management Journal, Vol. 33, No. 1, pp. 71-78, First Quarter
1992.
13. Bodinson, Glenn, "Time-based
Competition is The Competitive Advantage of the 1990s," APICS: The Performance Advantage, Vol. 1, No.
6, pp. 27-31, December 1991.
14. Keen, Peter G. W., Shaping the
Future: Business Design through
Information Technology,
15. Walton, Mary, The Deming Management
Method,
16. Li, Lode, "The Role of Inventory in
Delivery-time Competition," Management
Science, Vol. 38, No. 2, pp. 182-197, February 1992.
18. Frenzel, Carroll W., Management of
Information Technology,
19. Rapid Development Using the IEF,
Version 1.0,
20. Pan, Jeff Y. C., and Jay M. Tenenbaum, "An Intelligent Agent Framework of
21. Hoffman, Kenneth C., "Management of
Enterprise-wide Systems Integration Programs," Proceedings of the Second International
Conference on Systems Integration,
22. Johnson, James R., The Software
Factory: Managing Software Development and Maintenance, Second Edition,
23. Rumbaugh, James, M. Blaha, W.
Premerlani, F. Eddy, and W. Lorenssen, Object-oriented Modeling and Design,
24. Turino, Jon, Managing Concurrent
Engineering: Buying Time-to-Market,
25.
26. McGuire, Kenneth, JUST-IN-TIME: An Approach to World Class Manufacturing,
27. Modell, Martin E. Data Analysis, Data
Modeling and Classification,
28. McClure, Carma, The Three R's of
Software Automation: Re-engineering,
Repository, Reusability,
29. A Guide to Information Engineering
Using the IEF: Computer-Aided Planning,
Analysis, and Design: Second Edition,
30.
Lowery, Gwen,
& Rob Ferrara, Managing Projects with Microsoft Project 98 for Windows,
31.
McConnell,
Steve, Rapid Development,